Jim_Smith
New
This is from the article:
https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/24/12-experts-questioning-the-coronavirus-panic
"In Hubei, in the province of Hubei, where there has been the most cases and deaths by far, the actual number of cases reported is 1 per 1000 people and the actual rate of deaths reported is 1 per 20,000. So maybe that would help to put things into perspective. "
Supposing a population of 20,000 ,
1 death per 20,000 = 1 death in a population of 20,000
1 case per 1000 in a population of 20,000 = 20 cases
1 death / 20 cases = .05 death per case or a case fatality rate of 5%
That is a case fatality rate of 5%
The author says it would help to put things into perspective. I think it does.
What happens when I use the case fatality rate from the article vortex posted....
The Chinese took extensive precautions to stop the out break.
The population of the US is 330,000,000 we had 39,000,000 cases of flu this year, one case of flu per 8.5 people, we didn't take extensive precautions to stop the flu so we had many more cases of flu (1 in 8.5 people) than Hubei had cases of covid-19 (1 in 20,000) .
Covid-19 is more infectious than flu so it is an underestimate to say 39,000,000 cases of flu this year * case faltality rate of .05 = 1,950,000 potential deaths from covid-19 if we don't take extraordinary precautions to stop the spread and it spreads like the flu.
I am not saying we will have 1,950,000 deaths from covid-19. I am saying the numbers in the article vortex posted justify extensive precautions because there is a potentila for 2 million deaths from covid-19
I don't know if the numbers in the article are right.