The Black Swan :

#1
David Hume was probably the first philosopher to warn us about the existence of the unpredictable and unexpected black swans that do turn induction or dogmatic "certainty" into logical fallacies, simply put .

Karl Popper did solve Hume's paradox regarding induction brilliantly ,while Bertrand Russell, for example, could not.

The existence of black swan events make this world unpredictable and uncertain in many ways, despite what "experts" might tell you to the contrary via their sophisticated and yet deceptive jargon....

Nassim Nicholas Taleb gives the above another dimension in his following book on the subject :

http://www.amazon.com/The-Black-Swan-Improbable-Robustness/dp/081297381X

Quote : " A black swan is an event, positive or negative, that is deemed improbable yet causes massive consequences. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Taleb shows in a playful way that Black Swan events explain almost everything about our world, and yet we—especially the experts—are blind to them. In this second edition, Taleb has added a new essay, On Robustness and Fragility, which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world." End quote
Source: Amazon.com

Cheers.
 
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#2
David Hume was probably the first philosopher to warn us about the existence of the unpredictable and unexpected black swans that do turn induction or dogmatic "certainty" into logical fallacies, simply put .

Karl Popper did solve Hume's paradox regarding induction brilliantly ,while Bertrand Russell, for example, could not.

The existence of black swan events make this world unpredictable and uncertain in many ways, despite what "experts" might tell you to the contrary via their sophisticated and yet deceptive jargon....

Nassim Nicholas Taleb gives the above another dimension in his following book on the subject :

http://www.amazon.com/The-Black-Swan-Improbable-Robustness/dp/081297381X

Quote : " A black swan is an event, positive or negative, that is deemed improbable yet causes massive consequences. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Taleb shows in a playful way that Black Swan events explain almost everything about our world, and yet we—especially the experts—are blind to them. In this second edition, Taleb has added a new essay, On Robustness and Fragility, which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world." End quote
Source: Amazon.com

Cheers.
Have you read The Black Swan? I recently re-read it and was struck by how much of it was applicable to the topics we discuss here.

Linda
 
#3
Have you read The Black Swan? I recently re-read it and was struck by how much of it was applicable to the topics we discuss here.

Linda
Indeed.I have read just some parts of it.It is a fascinating and enlightening book.I will make time to read it all.Cheers.
 
#4
Indeed.I have read just some parts of it.It is a fascinating and enlightening book.I will make time to read it all.Cheers.
Good. I recommend it. A complimentary book to read (and one which is referenced in The Black Swan (and vice versa)) is Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahnemann.

Linda
 
#5
Good. I recommend it. A complimentary book to read (and one which is referenced in The Black Swan (and vice versa)) is Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahnemann.

Linda
Ok.Got that one too.Got plenty of top books to recommend, but i will just mention the following one : The power of habit
Why We Do What We Do in Life and Business :
: , by Charles Duhigg :
http://www.amazon.com/The-Power-Habit-What-Business/dp/081298160X

Oh, well : this one too is good :

http://www.amazon.com/How-We-Learn-...8&qid=1426882367&sr=1-1&keywords=how+we+learn

"In the tradition of The Power of Habit and Thinking, Fast and Slow comes a practical, playful, and endlessly fascinating guide to what we really know about learning and memory today—and how we can apply it to our own lives.

From an early age, it is drilled into our heads: Restlessness, distraction, and ignorance are the enemies of success. We’re told that learning is all self-discipline, that we must confine ourselves to designated study areas, turn off the music, and maintain a strict ritual if we want to ace that test, memorize that presentation, or nail that piano recital.

But what if almost everything we were told about learning is wrong? And what if there was a way to achieve more with less effort?

In How We Learn, award-winning science reporter Benedict Carey sifts through decades of education research and landmark studies to uncover the truth about how our brains absorb and retain information. What he discovers is that, from the moment we are born, we are all learning quickly, efficiently, and automatically; but in our zeal to systematize the process we have ignored valuable, naturally enjoyable learning tools like forgetting, sleeping, and daydreaming. Is a dedicated desk in a quiet room really the best way to study? Can altering your routine improve your recall? Are there times when distraction is good? Is repetition necessary? Carey’s search for answers to these questions yields a wealth of strategies that make learning more a part of our everyday lives—and less of a chore.

By road testing many of the counterintuitive techniques described in this book, Carey shows how we can flex the neural muscles that make deep learning possible. Along the way he reveals why teachers should give final exams on the first day of class, why it’s wise to interleave subjects and concepts when learning any new skill, and when it’s smarter to stay up late prepping for that presentation than to rise early for one last cram session. And if this requires some suspension of disbelief, that’s because the research defies what we’ve been told, throughout our lives, about how best to learn.

The brain is not like a muscle, at least not in any straightforward sense. It is something else altogether, sensitive to mood, to timing, to circadian rhythms, as well as to location and environment. It doesn’t take orders well, to put it mildly. If the brain is a learning machine, then it is an eccentric one. In How We Learn, Benedict Carey shows us how to exploit its quirks to our advantage." Amazon.com
Cheers.
 
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#6
If only people would read the great above mentioned book : that would cure them from dogmatic "certainty" and induction as logical fallacies...and make them immune to all those whole philosophy and other ideologies systems builders ( to the secular and religious ones alike) and to "prediction " maniacs....

Welcome to the "real " world that's unpredictable and uncertain.

Focus on what you do (absolutely) not know , instead of on what you think you know.

What you do not know is not the opposite of what you think you know though.

Learn how to unlearn if you want to learn ....

Learn how to empty your full cup if you want it to be ...filled again...
 
#8
A while back I tried getting people here at Skeptiko interested in Nassim Taleb bc his ideas are so relevant to these topics, but no one engaged.

He's great. Antifragile is really good, too

Edit: just bought Thinking Fast & Slow
 
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#9
="Reece, post: 62078, member: 16"]A while back I tried getting people here at Skeptiko interested in Nassim Taleb bc his ideas are so relevant to these topics, but no one engaged.
Indeed.See how many people have participated to this thread so far.Nassim Taleb is 1 of the best thinkers of our time ,and it's really odd that people here do seem not to be interested in his thought that's indeed relevant to all topics in this forum and beyond.Too bad.

He's great. Antifragile is really good, too
Got that one too.Haven't read it yet.Looking forward to that.

Edit: just bought Thinking Fast & Slow
It's worth it, believe me.Enjoy it.Thanks for your contribution.Cheers.
 
#10
David Hume was probably the first philosopher to warn us about the existence of the unpredictable and unexpected black swans that do turn induction or dogmatic "certainty" into logical fallacies, simply put .

Karl Popper did solve Hume's paradox regarding induction brilliantly ,while Bertrand Russell, for example, could not.

The existence of black swan events make this world unpredictable and uncertain in many ways, despite what "experts" might tell you to the contrary via their sophisticated and yet deceptive jargon....

Nassim Nicholas Taleb gives the above another dimension in his following book on the subject :

http://www.amazon.com/The-Black-Swan-Improbable-Robustness/dp/081297381X

Quote : " A black swan is an event, positive or negative, that is deemed improbable yet causes massive consequences. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Taleb shows in a playful way that Black Swan events explain almost everything about our world, and yet we—especially the experts—are blind to them. In this second edition, Taleb has added a new essay, On Robustness and Fragility, which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world." End quote
Source: Amazon.com

Cheers.
Next on my reading list...
 
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