Nassim
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David Hume was probably the first philosopher to warn us about the existence of the unpredictable and unexpected black swans that do turn induction or dogmatic "certainty" into logical fallacies, simply put .
Karl Popper did solve Hume's paradox regarding induction brilliantly ,while Bertrand Russell, for example, could not.
The existence of black swan events make this world unpredictable and uncertain in many ways, despite what "experts" might tell you to the contrary via their sophisticated and yet deceptive jargon....
Nassim Nicholas Taleb gives the above another dimension in his following book on the subject :
http://www.amazon.com/The-Black-Swan-Improbable-Robustness/dp/081297381X
Quote : " A black swan is an event, positive or negative, that is deemed improbable yet causes massive consequences. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Taleb shows in a playful way that Black Swan events explain almost everything about our world, and yet we—especially the experts—are blind to them. In this second edition, Taleb has added a new essay, On Robustness and Fragility, which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world." End quote
Source: Amazon.com
Cheers.
Karl Popper did solve Hume's paradox regarding induction brilliantly ,while Bertrand Russell, for example, could not.
The existence of black swan events make this world unpredictable and uncertain in many ways, despite what "experts" might tell you to the contrary via their sophisticated and yet deceptive jargon....
Nassim Nicholas Taleb gives the above another dimension in his following book on the subject :
http://www.amazon.com/The-Black-Swan-Improbable-Robustness/dp/081297381X
Quote : " A black swan is an event, positive or negative, that is deemed improbable yet causes massive consequences. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Taleb shows in a playful way that Black Swan events explain almost everything about our world, and yet we—especially the experts—are blind to them. In this second edition, Taleb has added a new essay, On Robustness and Fragility, which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world." End quote
Source: Amazon.com
Cheers.
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