So how is it we know where Trump stands in regard to this deep state; friend or foe?
Well, I strive not to play the "we" game and so I am happy to share my current assumptions but would never suggest this is how others should assess things. In addition, I don't do the "its either this or that" game because of the vast depth of the grey area in between.
So here's the shortest answer I can give.
Trump did not understand the deep embeddedness of the "The Club" as I call it.
That which has become known as "the Deep State" is just a branch of the Club when viewed under the definition I assign to the term. For me, the Deep State is made up of of un-elected bureaucrats within government. Some of these un-elected bureacrats are "Club material" (ie. prospects) or "Club members" and some are identified as unlikely recruits. Those who "get it," get into the Club. There are other Club members (or Club material) that may enter into a role as an un-elected bureacrat for a stint then rotate out into other sectors (known as the revolving door). What "political flag" they waive and the related political positions of either
always stand secondary to the actions they take (based on their empowerment and position). Their actions are dictated by the leaders of the day of The Club.
I believe Trump knew, or at least strongly suspected the existence of The Club. But I strongly believe he had no idea the depth of power and penetration of the Club in every sector of the global management systems. I believe he learned fast and that is why he is still president today. If he had not, he would have provided his own sword by which he would have been destroyed. And the narrative would have been craftily created to appear he had fallen on his own sword, thus
his fault, not the Club's fault or the nearer "actor," the Deep State.
Now I can understand how folks would expand the definition of Deep State to include current elected officials that appear to facilitate the goals of the Club. I can understand how "retired" former un-elected bureaucratic officials could be included in the definition. I can understand how political appointees that require "confirmation" could be included in the definition, but I see all these actually playing their roles as members of the Club.
I believe Trump got a very quick education as to the Club and the Deep State, what they are, who are confirmed Club members and who are likely suspects as Club members. He can fire an attorney general perhaps, but he can't fire 93 US Attorneys can he? Well, yes he can. Clinton fired all 93 on the same day in March 1993. Trump only fired 46 and those were Obama appointees. Clinton understood. Trump only saw it through the lens of Democrat / Republican.
Back to Trump... he is President today because he got "the clues" and started becoming a President that stayed "on the road" well enough
as President and the Club has allowed him to remain.
And now, for "the road" and "the lanes." Picture this. There is a big circle. You start at the center of the circle and the Club wants you to end up within a range of points somewhere on the circumference of that circle. That range is a very small portion of the total circumference of that circle. Trump has all the freedom he wants to drive the bus in either the left lane or the right lane as long as he stays on the road. Trump tends to swerve a bit, usually to the right and sometimes hard right and sometimes he has some wheels on the shoulder but so far he has managed to keep the bus rolling without flying off the road.
Will he get re-elected? The Club wants to make sure they have the most control possible within the reality of the experiment where "they" gave the power to the people to elect their president and representatives, etc. A good experiment if you think you can always own both sides and have the ability to successfully influence elections because the people are deluded into thinking its up to them.
The Club may not have been very happy with Trump for jumping into their system and showing the vulnerability of that system by winning. But knowing the Club as I do, they seize opportunities these unexpected situations present to enact damage control measures whereby once again the Club regains the upper hand. IMO it took about 6 months for Trump to "get it."
So if I have it about right and if I have Trump profiled about right, I believe Trump has always been a quick learner and yet (like us all to varying degrees, certainly myself) Trump can be his own worst enemy. And so the real battle is, can Trump control and contain Trump well enough and can the Club agree that they have Trump well enough under control to allow him another 4 years.
Now the Club, you understand, thinks decades out... so they are playing this out from that perspective. I had always believed the Club prefer willing hierarchical structures where each level happily plays their role and things stay relatively under control. In fact, "controlled wars" is a part of that dynamic. Remember, it was Republicans that brought us FISA and it was Republicans that brought us the Patriot Act provisions of FISA. It was Deep State and active Club members in parallel roles that got Kennedy dealt with and this was pretty heavily Republican oriented folks. So I put my money on this: that the Club prefers that type of control system over the other options. Understand, Obama was nothing like the lefties of today. And Hillary was disguised as a Democrat just like Bill was (Bill's NAFTA was as Republican of a "trade deal" as you could ever imagine and much of his record reflects a center right administration).
That summerizes much of my current view. It may be that they will spin COVID-19 well enough to prevent his re-election
or maybe it turns out to be far less a big deal and he is able to turn that into political points, especially when the stock market makes a solid move towards recovery. Regardless, it will all be up to the Club and they know they'll regain far more control with Biden, but I am unsure if they feel they need to go that way in when they consider their plan that spans several decades out.